Weak Euro Propels German Economy

Germany's economy appears to be gaining steam despite mounting worries the fiscal troubles in countries along the euro-zone's fringe could undermine Europe's recovery.

Germany's economy, the driver of the European economy, is likely to expand at a 3% to 4% rate this quarter, economists say, a forecast supported by a string of strong reports on employment, consumer spending and manufacturing Tuesday. Lower interest rates and a weaker euro have propelled Germany's investment and export-driven economy.

The recovery could still falter, analysts warn. Just as the U.S. subprime-mortgage crisis thwarted Germany's expansion two years ago, Europe's brewing financial contagion could hamper growth if German banks face extensive losses and are unable to extend credit to industry and households. Other countries in Europe face years of weak growth or recession, making Germany vulnerable to any slowdown in markets including China or the U.S.

Still, while the German public was strongly opposed to rescuing Greece, and its central bank is openly at odds with the European Central Bank's decision to purchase Greek and other struggling countries' debt, from an economic standpoint it has little to complain about.

"As a firm, we're always one of the very first to experience the first affects of a crisis," says Dietmar Ahl, chief executive of Günther Bechtold GmbH, a Bavaria-based sheet metal processor and manufacturer. "That also has the benefit of making us one of the first to see a recovery. And that's what's happening right now."

Business should be up 25% this year, Mr. Ahl says, after falling almost 50% between 2007 and 2009. The company has been able to add some temporary workers to its 66-person staff.

German unemployment fell 45,000 in May, more than twice the drop expected by economists, bringing the unemployment rate down to 7.7%, the lowest since December 2008. The EU-harmonized figure is even lower at just over 7%.

The German numbers highlight the divide between its economy and that of the greater euro zone. The European Union's Eurostat agency said Tuesday that unemployment across the 16 countries that share the euro rose to 10.1% in April, its highest level in 12 years, driven by increases in Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. But Eurostat said there are signs the jobless rate may be close to peaking after only 25,000 people joined jobless queues in April, the second-smallest increase since March 2008.

German manufacturing slowed in May, according to purchasing manager reports released Tuesday by Markit, but continues to expand at a healthy pace. Factory output slowed more markedly in the euro zone as a whole, highlighting the region's fragility.

"The short-term outlook is very favorable" for Germany, said Alexander Koch, economist at UniCredit Group. He thinks Germany's GDP could swell 4%, at an annualized rate, this quarter. "The momentum is strong, which bodes well for the labor market in coming months," Mr. Koch says.

JPMorgan Chase expects Germany's GDP to expand 3% this quarter, though that could be revised higher in light of recent data, economist Greg Fuzesi says. That should propel euro zone growth to around 3% this quarter as well, Mr. Fuzesi says. GDP in the currency bloc advanced just 0.8%, at an annualized rate, last quarter, well below growth rates seen in the US and developing countries such as China and India.

The total number of German unemployed fell last month to 3.24 million. It was once feared that unemployment would top four million or even five million. The labor market is one area where Germany has outperformed the U.S., where the jobless rate is 9.9% despite strong economic growth at the end of 2009 and early 2010.

A number of forces are at work here, economists say. The Germany statistics office changed the way it classifies unemployed people who are using employment agencies, which reduced the reported numbers of unemployed. Government subsidy programs aimed at keeping people in their jobs by paying part of their wages and employment taxes kept as many as 500,000 from going on the jobless rolls, some economists estimate.

The number of people on Germany's subsidized work program, known as Kurzarbeit, has fallen roughly in half since it peaked at 1.5 million one year ago.

That suggests a gamble Germany made at the start of the crisis is paying off. Kurzarbeit has been in place for decades, but the government expanded the program during the recent recession. Critics warned that by keeping people in their jobs, the government was simply delaying an inevitable adjustment that would have to come in order for Germany to stay competitive with other economic powerhouses including the U.S. and China.

But now that global trade is recovering, German exporters have the staff, and expertise, on hand to meet demand.

"Right now, the Germany industry is starting to heal itself very slowly," says Matthias Freund, who owns Freund Human Resources Consulting, which focuses on management recruitment. "Firms are starting to hire employees again, and you can sense that the business climate is getting better."

Europe's debt crisis could still derail expansion, because German banks are heavily exposed to the debt of at-risk peripheral countries like Greece, Portugal and Ireland. But for now a weaker euro is shielding the economy from financial turbulence. The euro now fetches around $1.23 against the U.S. dollar, down more than 15% since December.

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Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline in deal to supply low-cost vaccines

Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline will supply hundreds of millions of doses of their pneumonia vaccines to the world's poorest countries at heavily discounted prices under a novel agreement, reports the New York Times.

The deal was announced by the Gavi Alliance, a non-profit organisation, which estimated the program could save a total of 900,000 lives by 2015 and up to seven million lives by 2030.

Pneumococcal disease not only kills small children but also maims, leaving survivors with high rates of mental disability, seizures and deafness, says Sarah Boseley in the Guardian. She continues: "There's no doubt about the good that such a vaccine can do. But there will continue to be questions about the way the deal has been done, not least because it is the first of its kind and sets a pattern for the future".

Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline will provide up to 300 million doses each of their vaccines over a 10-year period under the new agreement. The price for the first 20% of the supply will be $7 a dose. Then the price will drop to $3.50 a dose for the remainder. The vaccines would be paid for by donations raised by Gavi and by the governments of the countries that ordered the vaccines. In Western markets, the pneumococcal vaccines sell for $54 to $108 a dose.

"For the price of a Starbucks latte, developing countries are going to be able to buy a dose of a life-saving vaccine," said Orin Levine, director of the international vaccine access center at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who has worked with GAVI.

The NYT reports that officials involved in the deal say that it historically took many years for a vaccine developed in the West to trickle down to developing countries. But the new program would make the first vaccines available to Africa this year.

"American kids and African kids will get this new vaccine in the same year," Dr. Levine of Johns Hopkins said. "That's just never happened before."

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Conoco to halve its 20 percent stake in LUKOIL

ConocoPhillips said it plans to halve its 20 percent equity stake in Russian oil major LUKOIL as part of a program to boost returns and reduce debt.

Conoco, which has big exposure to a weak refining market and is challenged by exploration and production assets in North America that are tilted toward less-profitable natural gas, lags its oil major peers in returns.

ConocoPhillips released a bare-bones plan to revive its finances five months ago, which included the sale of $10 billion in assets.

At the time, investors and analysts speculated that Conoco might sell part of its stake in the Russian oil major and last week Reuters reported that Conoco had decided to do so.

It is "more appropriate" for the company to use proceeds from part of its LUKOIL interest to increase shareholder value, Jim Mulva, Conoco chief executive, told the company's annual meeting with analysts. But he also said it was important for the company to remain in Russia.

LUKOIL was the most likely buyer of the 10 percent stake, which is worth $4.9 billion, analysts at Raymond James said in a research note.

LUKOIL Vice President Leonid Fedun told analysts in London that his company would not rule out buying the shares being sold by Conoco, but added that the Kremlin could oppose such a move.

Conoco said potential dispositions in 2010 include its interests in the Syncrude oil sands project and the Rex pipeline, 10 percent of its Lower 48 and Western Canada portfolio, and its remaining gasoline retail operations.

About half of the assets will be sold in 2010, and the remainder in 2011, the company said.

The company also said it plans a $5 billion share repurchase program and will raise its dividend 10 percent.

The third-largest U.S. oil company said it expects per share production growth of 3 percent in 2010 and 2011 and 3 percent to 5 percent in subsequent years.

At 1600 GMT, the company's shares were up 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $52.58 on the New York Stock Exchange.

LUKOIL's Fedun said planned tax breaks in Russia meant its cash flows could rise and that the Kremlin could object if this money was spent buying back the shares.

"The political leadership of the country may see it negatively," he said.

He added that any purchase would depend on LUKOIL's other financial obligations and said he himself would not buy the shares. Fedun already owns 9 percent of LUKOIL.

LUKOIL, Russia's No. 2 oil producer missed forecasts when posting a 23 percent drop in 2009 profit on Wednesday.

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Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway continues to dump Moody's stock

Warren Buffett continues to show that he's no longer in the mood to be a Moody's investor.

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reported additional sales of the credit rating firm in an SEC filing Monday. Berkshire has reported such sales at least a half-dozen times in the past year and seems on its way to liquidating the entire stake.

The latest filing reported that Berkshire sold 815,905 shares last week. That raised about $24 million for Berkshire, mere pocket change.

Berkshire still owned about 31 million shares of Moody's Corp. as of the filing.

Berkshire is required to report the transactions within two days of their occurrence because it owns more than 10 percent of the company's stock. Once that ownership level falls below 10 percent, which it seems nearly certain to do, Berkshire will no longer have to update its sales each time they're made.

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GE Capital, Navistar Partner On Truck Loans

General Electric Co.'s (GE) financing unit will provide customer loans for commercial truck maker Navistar International Corp. (NAV), giving Navistar the ability to finance larger truck fleet purchases.

The partnership between the two companies, which will be called Navistar Capital, will effectively transfer Navistar's retail-level lending operations from its finance subsidiary to General Electric Capital Corp. The new venture will commence in about 90 days, the companies said Tuesday.

About 60 Navistar Financial employees who support its retail lending business will join GE Capital to manage lending under the new venture, the companies said. Navistar Financial, meanwhile, will continue to provide financing for truck purchases by the company's independent dealers.

The two companies declined to divulge how much money GE Capital is committing to Navistar Capital or the details about profit-sharing between the companies. The agreement announced Tuesday will run for three years, followed by one-year automatic renewals that will run indefinitely.

Navistar Financial has been providing customer loans totaling $1 billion to $2 billion a year. The company's traditional focus has been on small and medium-sized trucking companies that have limited credit options elsewhere.

But Navistar has been under pressure in the past year to expand its lending volume as large trucking companies look to the company for purchase financing as they replace their truck fleets. Tighter credit standards have put bank loans off limits for many of these companies, prolonging a sales slump in the commercial truck industry that began in 2007.

Navistar said the ability to provide in-house financing for large truck deals will make the Illinois company more competitive with rivals such as Daimler AG's (DAI, DAI.XE) Freightliner truck line and Paccar Inc. (PCAR).

GE Capital has provided financing for Navistar's customers in Canada for the past 25 years. The Connecticut company also has similar partnerships with other equipment makers, including for the Bobcat-brand of compact construction equipment. GE Credit operates about 40 commercial lending programs across a variety of industries.

Navistar noted that the infusion of capital from GE will allow Navistar to expand its financing options, particularly a lease-to-own program for trucks buyers. Navistar Capital also is expected to strengthen Navistar's balance sheet by lessening Navistar Financial's reliance on borrowing to generate capital for loans.

"The deal is a mild positive for Navistar," said Gregg Lemos Stein, a credit analyst with Standard & Poor's, in a written statement. "We believe the alliance will reduce the risk of heavy funding requirements at Navistar Financial Corp."

Navistar, which has a below-investment-grade credit rating, has been an active issuer in the public market for asset-backed securities. Navistar Financial in January was in the market with a $250 million equipment bond for dealer financing. The security is eligible for financing under the Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which is intended to rejuvenate the consumer loan-backed market.

Bill McMenamin, vice president of Navistar Financial, predicted the company will lessen its exposure to the asset-backed market once Navistar Capital takes over customer lending.

"Navistar Financial will become a smaller, but more conservatively financed company," he said.

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Walmart Sales Fell 2% in the Fourth Quarter

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT ), the world's largest retailer, reported that sales fell 2% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. More bad news is on the way. Walmart also forecast a "challenging" first quarter.

All of the big guns at Walmart offered their reasons for the decline. Deflation in the price of groceries, which account for 40% of sales, was one factor. Price discounts in electronics and flat screen TVs were also cited.

Tom Schoewe, chief financial officer, said customer traffic had fallen and, among other things, cited the remodeling of Walmart stores under Project Impact.

The retailer reported adjusted earnings of $4.5 billion or $1.17 per diluted share. Full-year sales increased 4.6% to $112 billion. International sales surpassed $100 billion.

Mike Duke, chief executive, said sales had exceed expectations for the fourth quarter. It ended the year with inventory down 7.8%. He expects the first quarter to be "challenging."

For the current fiscal year, the company expects diluted earnings per share to come in at $3.90 to $4.00. First quarter earnings per share are expected to be between $0.81 to $0.85.

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GlaxoSmithKline to cut 380 jobs at UK research facility

UK-based pharmaceutical group GlaxoSmithKline is planning to reduce its workforce at the company's R&D facility in Harlow, Essex. According to reports, approximately 380 employees are likely to lose their jobs at the facility.

The company has decided to implement the job reductions following the completion of projects for pain relief, anxiety and depression drugs.

Andrew Witty, CEO of GlaxoSmithKline, was quoted by Canadian Business Online as saying: "Glaxo would discontinue research in some areas including depression and pain, and would focus more on degenerative and inflammatory diseases such as Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease."

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Moody's Corp. Releases Results for 4th Quarter and Full-Year 2009

Moody's Corp. announced results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2009.

In a release on Feb. 4, Moody's reported revenue of $485.8 million for the three months ended December 31, an increase of 20 percent from $403.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2008. Operating income for the quarter was $178.9 million, a 43 percent increase from $125.4 million for the same period last year. Diluted earnings per share of $0.43 for the fourth quarter of 2009 included a benefit of $0.01 related to previously announced restructuring activities. Excluding restructuring adjustments in both periods, diluted earnings per share of $0.42 for the quarter increased 14 percent from $0.37 in the prior-year period.

Summary of Results for Full-Year 2009

Moody's Corp. said its revenue for the full-year 2009 totaled $1,797.2 million, an increase of 2 percent from $1,755.4 million for 2008. U.S. revenue of $920.8 million increased 1 percent, while non-U.S. revenue of $876.4 million increased 4 percent from the prior year. Operating income of $687.5 million declined 8 percent from $748.2 million for the full-year 2008, and the operating margin was 38.3 percent for the full-year 2009. Excluding the unfavorable impact from foreign currency translation, revenue increased 4 percent from the prior-year period. The impact of foreign currency translation on operating income was negligible. Diluted earnings per share of $1.69 for the full-year 2009 included a net charge of $0.01, reflecting costs related to previously announced restructuring plans partially offset by a benefit from certain legacy tax matters. Excluding these items in both years, diluted earnings per share of $1.70 for the full-year 2009 decreased 7 percent from $1.82 for the full-year 2008.

"Moody's full-year results reflected gradual improvement of credit markets throughout 2009. Strength in corporate debt issuance and growth from Moody's Analytics provided a slight increase in revenue from the prior year, but activity was limited in other areas of the markets," said Raymond McDaniel, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Moody's. "We anticipate continuing recovery for 2010, but also expect market conditions to remain challenging until economic improvement across key markets is sustained. With this outlook, we are projecting a stronger revenue increase and a return to earnings growth for 2010, with ongoing expense management to support business initiatives and regulatory and compliance efforts."

Fourth Quarter Revenue

For Moody's Corp. overall, global revenue of $485.8 million increased 20 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008. Excluding the favorable impact of foreign currency translation, revenue increased 17 percent. U.S. revenue of $245.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2009 increased 25 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008, while revenue generated outside the U.S. of $240.7 million increased 16 percent from the prior-year period. Revenue generated outside the U.S. represented 50 percent of Moody's total revenue for the quarter, down from 52 percent in the year-ago period.

Global revenue for Moody's Investors Service ("MIS") for the fourth quarter of 2009 was $331.9 million, an increase of 31 percent from the prior-year period. Excluding the favorable impact of foreign currency translation, revenue grew 26 percent. U.S. revenue of $179.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2009 increased 42 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008. Outside the U.S., revenue of $152.8 million increased 19 percent from the year-ago period, according to Moody's.

Within MIS, global corporate finance revenue of $115.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 increased 99 percent from the same quarter of 2008. U.S. corporate finance revenue increased 106 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008, while outside the U.S., revenue increased 90 percent from the prior-year period. Growth was primarily driven by activity in the high-yield bond market.

The company said global structured finance revenue totaled $78.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2009, a decrease of 14 percent from a year earlier. U.S. structured finance revenue increased 5 percent from the year-ago period, reflecting increased issuance activity from asset-backed securities and commercial real-estate finance. Non-U.S. structured finance revenue decreased 25 percent, driven by revenue declines across all asset classes as improved credit market conditions slowed use of securitization for central bank supported programs.

Global financial institutions revenue of $72.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 increased 27 percent compared to the same quarter of 2008, due to gains from the banking sector. U.S. financial institutions revenue increased 18 percent, while non-U.S. revenue increased 35 percent.

Global public, project and infrastructure finance revenue was $66.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2009, an increase of 36 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008. U.S. revenue increased 36 percent from the prior-year period, primarily driven by stimulus plan-related public finance issuance. Non-U.S. revenue increased 35 percent with strong issuance in European infrastructure finance.

Global revenue for Moody's Analytics ("MA") for the fourth quarter of 2009 reached $153.9 million, up 3 percent from the same quarter of 2008. Foreign currency translation did not materially impact revenue. Reflecting a realignment of revenue by product grouping in both periods, revenue from subscription-based research, data and analytics of $106.0 million declined by 1 percent from the prior-year period; risk management software revenue of $42.3 million grew 21 percent; and professional services revenue of $5.6 million decreased 26 percent from the prior-year period. A reconciliation table for MA revenue is available at the end of this press release.

In the U.S., MA revenue of $66.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2009 declined 5 percent from the prior-year period, reflecting the effects of customer attrition due to financial market disruption in late 2008 and early 2009. Outside the U.S., revenue increased 10 percent over the prior-year period to $87.9 million, primarily due to growth in the risk management software business.

Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Expenses

According to the company, fourth quarter 2009 expense for Moody's Corp. of $306.9 million was 10 percent higher than in the prior-year period and included higher accruals for performance-based compensation. Moody's reported operating margin for the fourth quarter of 2009 was 36.8 percent. Excluding the restructuring adjustments in the current period, expenses were 11 percent higher than the prior-year period and operating margin was 36.6 percent, compared to 31.1 percent in the prior-year period. Without the unfavorable impact of foreign currency translation, reported expenses increased 8 percent.

Full-year 2009 expenses for Moody's Corp. of $1,109.7 million were 10 percent higher than the prior year. Excluding restructuring adjustments in both periods, Moody's expenses were 8 percent higher in 2009, primarily due to incremental expenses from businesses acquired in the fourth quarter of 2008 and higher incentive compensation.

Moody's said its effective tax rate was 38.3 percent for the fourth quarter of 2009, compared with 28.6 percent for the prior-year period. The increase was primarily due to a favorable true-up of the full-year 2008 tax accrual in the fourth quarter of 2008. In addition, the 2008 effective tax rate included realization of U.S. manufacturing and research credits and deductions. The annual effective tax rate for 2009 was 37.0 percent compared to 36.7 percent for 2008.

Full-Year 2009 Revenue Results

The release said that revenue at Moody's Investors Service totaled $1,217.7 million for the full-year 2009, an increase of 1 percent from the prior-year period. Excluding the unfavorable impact of foreign currency translation, revenue increased 3 percent. U.S. revenue of $663.1 million increased 3 percent, while non-U.S. revenue of $554.6 million decreased 1 percent from the prior year.

Moody's Analytics revenue rose to $579.5 million for the full-year of 2009, up 5 percent from the full-year of 2008. Excluding the unfavorable impact of foreign currency translation, revenue increased by 7 percent. Revenue from research, data and analytics declined by 1 percent to $413.6 million, and professional services revenue was down 10 percent to $20.8 million. For the risk management software business, revenue increased 33 percent to $145.1 million, due to the acquisition of Fermat International in late 2008 and good growth from legacy products and services. U.S. revenue of $257.7 million decreased 3 percent from the full-year 2008 results. Non-U.S. revenue of $321.8 million increased 13 percent from 2008 and represented 56 percent of total revenue, up from 52 percent in 2008.

Capital Allocation and Liquidity

On December 15, Moody's said it increased its quarterly dividend by 5 percent to 10.5 cents per share of Moody's common stock. During the fourth quarter of 2009, Moody's did not repurchase shares and issued 0.4 million shares under employee stock-based compensation plans. Outstanding shares as of December 31, totaled 236.9 million, representing a 1 percent increase from a year earlier. Additionally, as of December 31, Moody's had $1.4 billion of share repurchase authority remaining under its current program. At year-end, Moody's had $1.2 billion of outstanding debt and approximately $550 million of additional debt capacity available under its revolving credit facility. Moody's reduced total outstanding debt by $87 million during the fourth quarter and $274 million for the full-year of 2009. At year-end, total cash and cash equivalents were $473.9 million, an increase of $228 million from a year earlier.

Assumptions and Outlook for Full-Year 2010

Moody's said its outlook for 2010 is based on assumptions about many macroeconomic and capital market factors, including interest rates, corporate profitability and business investment spending, merger and acquisition activity, consumer borrowing and securitization, and the eventual withdrawal of government-sponsored economic stabilization initiatives. There is an important degree of uncertainty surrounding these assumptions and, if actual conditions differ from these assumptions, Moody's results for the year may differ materially from the current outlook.

For Moody's overall, the Company expects full-year 2010 revenue to increase in the high-single-digit percent range. Full-year 2010 expenses are also expected to increase in the high-single-digit percent range. Full-year 2010 operating margin is projected in the high-thirties percent range and the effective tax rate is expected in the range of 37 to 38 percent. Share repurchase is expected to resume at modest levels in 2010 subject to available cash flow and other capital allocation decisions. The Company expects diluted earnings per share for full-year 2010 in the range of $1.75 to $1.85. This outlook assumes foreign currency translation at end-of-year 2009 rates.

For the global MIS business, revenue for the full-year 2010 is expected to increase in the high-single- to low-double-digit percent range. Within the U.S., MIS revenue is expected to increase in the mid-teens percent range, while non-U.S. revenue is expected to increase in the mid-single-digit percent range. Corporate finance revenue is expected to increase in the high-teens percent range with anticipated growth in speculative-grade issuance activity offset by moderation of investment-grade issuance from the high volume of 2009. Structured finance revenue is expected to increase in the mid-single-digit percent range reflecting modest growth in most asset classes. Revenue from financial institution ratings is expected to increase in the low-single-digit percent range, while revenue from public, project and infrastructure finance is expected to increase in the low-double-digit percent range.

For Moody's Analytics, full-year 2010 revenue is expected to increase in the mid-single-digit percent range. Revenue growth is expected in the low-single-digit percent range for research, data and analytics, in the mid-teens percent range for risk management software, and in the high-single- to low-double-digit percent range for professional services. MA revenue is expected to increase in the low-single-digit percent range in the U.S. and in the mid-single-digit percent range outside the U.S.

According to the release, Moody's provides credit ratings, research, tools and analysis that contribute to transparent and integrated financial markets. Moody's Corp. is the parent company of Moody's Investors Service, which provides credit ratings and research covering debt instruments and securities, and Moody's Analytics, which encompasses Moody's non-ratings businesses including risk management software for financial institutions, quantitative credit analysis tools, economic research and data services, data and analytical tools for the structured finance market, and training and other professional services. The Corp., which reported revenue of $1.8 billion in 2009, employs approximately 4,000 people and maintains a presence in 27 countries.

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Conoco Phillips to pay $175K fine

ConocoPhillips Co. has agreed to pay a hefty fine and install pollution-control equipment to settle alleged Clean Air Act violations on the Southern Ute Indian Reservation.The company will pay $175,000 in civil penalties in an agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regarding the Argenta and Sunnyside compressor stations.

ConocoPhillips also agreed to install new equipment and implement practices to reduce emissions and conserve natural gas.

“The settlement will formalize ConocoPhillips Co.'s commitment to reduce emissions of carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds, toxic and greenhouse gases, while conservation measures help return valuable natural gas to the marketplace," Carol Rushin, EPA Region 8 acting regional administrator, said in a news release Thursday.

ConocoPhillips in 2009 produced 16 billion cubic feet of natural gas in La Plata County, sixth-most among gas producers, according to state records. BP America produced the most by far, pumping 194.7 billion cubic feet from local wells.

“That will reduce the emissions across the board eventually, so it'll help anyone that lives close by that has any asthma-related health issues," Baizel said. “It'll also help keep La Plata County out of trouble with the EPA in terms of ozone levels."

The federal agency's complaint says a permit for ConocoPhillips' Sunnyside compressor station that took effect in December 2005 required the company to install an oxidation catalyst control system, but the company did not do so until March 2007.

The agency also alleged that ConocoPhillips was not keeping required emissions records, among other violations. ConocoPhillips cooperated with the agency to resolve the violations, the EPA said.

ConocoPhillips, based in Houston, reported $4.9 billion in earnings in 2009. The company has 30 days to pay the $175,000 fine, according to the settlement.

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WABCO Reports Q4, Maintains Profitability Amid Severe Industry Decline; Provides Guidance for 2010

WABCO Holdings Inc. (NYSE: WBC), a global technology leader and tier-one supplier to the commercial vehicle industry, today reported Q4 2009 sales of $460 million, up 1 percent from prior year and down 9 percent in local currencies, bringing full year 2009 sales to $1.49 billion, down 42 percent from prior year and down 39 percent in local currencies, reflecting the unprecedented severe slump in global demand for new commercial vehicles.

"2009 was an unprecedented year for the global commercial vehicle industry, which abruptly and deeply dropped in size while going through a shakeup of market demand among regions of the world and significantly increasing the importance of Asia. Indeed, in the last 12 months, commercial vehicle production decreased by more than 60 percent in Europe and almost 40 percent in North America while production grew by 18 percent in China. In 2009, more than 60 percent of the world's truck and bus production took place in China and India," said Jacques Esculier, WABCO Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "During the past five years, in anticipation of the growing importance of emerging markets, WABCO has been driving major initiatives to globalize the company's culture, capabilities and customer reach. In 2009, the future came faster than we thought but we were well prepared to morph with the market."

"Strongly rooted in China and India, WABCO has achieved a leading position in the marketplace through increasingly close connectivity to customers. We are further strengthened in Asia by an outstanding network of suppliers, manufacturing sites and engineering hubs. We produce some of our most advanced technologies right in Asia to serve local markets," said Esculier. "In Q4 2009, Asia accounted for 22 percent of sales, compared with 10 percent the prior year."

"In 2009, we also benefited from our efforts initiated a few years ago to grow our aftermarket globally. Q4 2009 revenues from aftermarket, in fact, increased by 13 percent year on year," said Esculier. "For full year 2009, we limited our decline in aftermarket sales to 6 percent."

WABCO reported Q4 2009 EBIT of $24.6 million, up from $15.2 million a year ago while performance EBIT was $26.5 million versus $43.3 million a year ago.

WABCO reported full year 2009 EBIT of $7.6 million, compared with EBIT of $247.8 million a year ago while performance EBIT was $38.9 million versus $301.1 million a year ago.

WABCO reported Q4 2009 net income of $38.7 million or $0.59 per diluted share versus net income of $21.2 million or $0.33 per diluted share a year ago. Performance net income for Q4 2009 was $23.2 million or $0.36 per diluted share versus performance net income of $39.5 million or $0.62 per diluted share a year ago. Performance net income excludes $13.9 million of benefits from certain one-time tax items in Q4 2009, in addition to other smaller items relating to streamlining and separation.

WABCO reported full year 2009 net income of $18.8 million or $0.29 per diluted share versus net income of $213.3 million or $3.24 per diluted share in 2008. Performance net income for full year 2009 was $25.7 million or $0.40 per diluted share versus performance net income of $246.8 million or $3.75 per diluted share a year ago.

Full year performance net income excludes certain non-performance items including streamlining expenses of $46.4 million (net of tax), favorable settlements resulting in the release of certain separation related indemnification obligations of $37.8 million, the previously disclosed charge from the Indian joint venture transactions of $9.8 million, and other tax related benefits of $11.5 million. In total, these non-performance items negatively impacted reported net income by $6.9 million for full year 2009.

WABCO generated $18.9 million in net cash from operating activities in Q4 2009 and used $7.6 million of free cash flow. Excluding payments of $10.2 million associated with streamlining, free cash flow in Q4 2009 totaled $2.6 million, reflecting the company's funding of increased business activities in Q4 2009.

WABCO generated free cash flow of $78.8 million for full year 2009. Excluding payments of $40.0 million associated with streamlining, free cash flow for full year 2009 totaled $118.8 million.

"Rising to the market challenges in 2009, we demonstrated, once again, our powerful ability to adapt to fast changing conditions and outperform industry dynamics. As early as mid 2008, we had already anticipated adverse global market conditions, and we swiftly launched decisive actions to align our capacity and cost structure for a significantly reduced level of market demand," said Esculier. "In the meantime, we continued to make progress on our three-pillar strategy of technology leadership, global expansion and excellence in execution."

"In 2009, we announced two breakthrough technologies: new clutch compressors and ESCsmart™ simulation system while our OptiDrive™ transmission automation system was named a finalist for the Automotive News PACE™ Award, the industry's benchmark for innovation. We entered into a long term supply agreement with CNHTC, China's largest producer of heavy duty trucks, to deliver our broad range of products from traditional valves all the way to our most sophisticated transmission automation systems," said Esculier. "In India, after acquiring majority control of our award-winning joint venture WABCO-TVS, we successfully integrated this world class subsidiary into our global organization. We further expanded our global customer base for OptiDrive systems through our long term agreement with Ashok Leyland, one of India's largest manufacturers of commercial vehicles."

"Amid WABCO's many accomplishments in 2009, our organization performed superbly, with high efficiency, maximum flexibility and fully under control. Across our worldwide manufacturing network, we further improved the overall quality of our products by 60 percent, reaching another exceptional level," said Esculier. "Demonstrating our commitment to safety in the workplace, we also improved the company's rate of occupational injury or illness in our factories by 20 percent, exceeding our superlative result from the previous years and continuing WABCO's industry-leading safety performance at yet another world class level."

"During 2009, we drove continuous improvements through our WABCO Operating System, one of our industry's most advanced management environments. Despite market turmoil that continued to strongly impact our suppliers and significant restructuring activities internally, our WABCO Operating System delivered $56.6 million of materials and conversion productivity, with materials productivity representing a record 6.1 percent of total materials cost. Among other strong positive results, we also achieved cost savings of $75 million in operating expenses, resulting in a reduction of approximately 19 percent year on year," said Esculier. "This major success helped maintain WABCO's full year 2009 profitability and generate free cash flow that well achieved the expectations in the company's previously disclosed 2009 operating framework."

Recent Highlights

In January 2010, WABCO announced that WABCO-TVS, the company's Indian subsidiary, won the India Manufacturing Excellence Award (IMEA) with "Super Platinum" distinction. Presented by The Economic Times in partnership with Frost & Sullivan, it is India's largest on-site audit of manufacturing practices benchmarked against global standards. The jury honored the WABCO-TVS manufacturing facility located in Chennai, India, as "Super Platinum" in recognition of the site's highest score among all other winners in 2009.

WABCO reported in January 2010 that it again supplied its most advanced, high performance braking technology to KAMAZ-Master, the Russian national off-road truck rally team and winner of Dakar 2010, the world's most challenging endurance rally. KAMAZ-Master trucks finished in first, second and fifth place at Dakar 2010, marking an unprecedented ninth time that KAMAZ-Master is the winner of the Dakar competition. WABCO has been supplying KAMAZ-Master heavy duty trucks for more than 10 years.

WABCO announced in January 2010 that its roll stability support (RSS) for trailers is the industry's first trailer roll-over control approved for use in all 27 countries of the European Union and in 20 other countries worldwide in accordance with the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe's Regulation 13 for braking. A new EU regulation requires vehicle stability with roll-over control for semi-trailers and heavy trailers, both with air suspension and up to three axles. It is compulsory for new type approvals from July 2010 and for new registrations from July 2011.

In January 2010, WABCO disclosed that it has developed and will supply breakthrough electronic control technology and an innovative high performance air supply system for original equipment manufacturer AUDI AG. WABCO's content will be equipped on the air suspension of the Audi A8 2010 model, Audi's new flagship luxury sedan. WABCO's electronic control unit is the passenger car industry's first application of air suspension using FlexRay™ technology for in-car data networking, resulting in faster and more highly reliable integration with the vehicle's other sensors and control systems.

Also in January 2010, WABCO introduced Trailer Immobilizer, a security innovation that significantly increases protection against trailer theft, as an additional function in the company's trailer electronic braking system (EBS). It blocks the wheels of a parked trailer to help prevent theft or unauthorized use. It is also the commercial vehicle industry's first trailer immobilizer system integrated with the vehicle's electronic braking system. It continues WABCO's 11-year track record of technology leadership in EBS for trailers.

In Q4 2009, WABCO announced that a global original equipment manufacturer headquartered in Europe has awarded WABCO a multi-year contract to supply an integrated pedal module to equip heavy and medium duty trucks for series production starting in 2013. Available for both automated and manual gearboxes, WABCO's integrated pedal module provides a standard interface in the vehicle's cab environment, resulting in lower installation costs and optimized logistics in original equipment manufacturing processes.

WABCO recently announced that its OptiDrive system, a breakthrough in transmission automation technology, has been named a finalist for the 2010 Automotive News PACE™ Awards, the automotive industry's benchmark for innovation. OptiDrive is a modular automated manual transmission system for medium and heavy duty commercial vehicles. It continues the company's 20-year track record of technology leadership in transmission automation.

WABCO was honored in Q4 2009 with two Technology Innovation Awards from one of China's largest manufacturers of commercial vehicles. Foton Group recognized WABCO's outstanding technological contribution to their trucks and Foton Bus Company praised WABCO's top innovation for their buses. Foton is ranked among China's 50 most valuable brands.

WABCO disclosed in Q4 2009 that the company and Yuchai Machinery Company have completed an agreement for product development and the long-term supply of twin-cylinder compressors for diesel engines to be mounted on heavy duty trucks. Yuchai is China's largest manufacturer of diesel engines for commercial vehicles for the past eight consecutive years and one of China's leading exporters serving more than 50 countries.

The company reported in Q4 2009 that WABCO and Chery Automobile Company have completed an agreement for product development and the long-term supply of vacuum pumps for automotive braking applications for diesel and gasoline direct injection engines. Chery is one of China's leading manufacturers of passenger cars and China's top ranked exporter of cars serving more than 70 countries. WABCO vacuum pumps for automotive braking systems utilize an ultra-low power consumption design that helps improve engine efficiency.

WABCO recently achieved a business breakthrough at one of its customers, Anhui Hualing Automobile Company (CAMC), one of China's major manufacturers of heavy duty trucks. Supplying the customer's trucks for both domestic and international markets, WABCO is providing anti-lock braking systems (ABS) and components for cabin air suspension systems on a sole supplier basis while also significantly furnishing other braking systems.

In Q4 2009, Meritor WABCO, the company's joint venture in North America, announced that System Saver 1200 Plus air dryers will be standard on all truck models of Daimler Trucks North America, as of January 2010. Developed specifically for North American air braking systems, the Meritor WABCO System Saver 1200 Plus is a high capacity air dryer that can be used in a wide range of vocational environments.

In Q4 2009, Meritor WABCO was awarded a significant contract by a major original equipment manufacturer of commercial vehicles to supply emission control valves, starting in January 2010, to help meet new engine requirements that came into effect in 2010 in the United States.

Also in Q4 2009, Meritor WABCO and a leading truck producer made an agreement for the supply of hydraulic clutch control systems, which include a master cylinder, slave cylinders and connecting technology for optional servo cylinders. The customer's volume production is scheduled to begin in April 2010.

As of 2009, Meritor WABCO marked another achievement in the company's technology leadership for commercial vehicle clutch technology. It now supplies clutch controls to three of the largest manufacturers of Class 8 trucks in North America. Class 8 trucks are the North American industry's heaviest duty with a gross vehicle weight rating above 33,000 pounds (14,969 kilos).

Full Year 2010 Guidance

Based on a set of market assumptions, the company's guidance for 2010 includes an estimated increase in 2010 sales of 15 to 20 percent in local currencies, full year reported operating margin from 4.5 to 6.5 percent, and performance operating margin from 5 to 7 percent, resulting in diluted earnings per share between $0.87 and $1.27 on a U.S. GAAP basis and between $1.00 and $1.40 on a performance basis. WABCO expects to convert between 80 and 90 percent of its net income into free cash flow, excluding streamlining and separation related payments.

"With our organization realignment and track record of excellent adaptability, we have enabled sufficient flexibility to take advantage of anticipated market opportunities. We will continue to connect more closely with customers and morph with the markets, especially in Asian and emerging countries," said Esculier. "We will fully capitalize on the exceptional efforts we made in 2009, resulting in our successful streamlining, major productivity gains, significantly reduced cost structure and an even more highly cost-effective WABCO Operating System. WABCO is well poised to generate superb incremental margins on future growth in the coming years."

About WABCO

WABCO Vehicle Control Systems (NYSE: WBC) is a leading supplier of safety and control systems for commercial vehicles. For over 140 years, WABCO has pioneered breakthrough electronic, mechanical and mechatronic technologies for braking, stability, and transmission automation systems supplied to the world's leading commercial truck, trailer, and bus manufacturers. With sales of $1.5 billion in 2009, WABCO is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium. For more information, visit www.wabco-auto.com

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Moody’s takes a dip, after the company’s 2010 profit forecast misses analyst expectations

On Wall Street, Thursday, shares of Moody’s Corp., a New York-based credit ratings agency, fell 6.1 percent, even though the company outperformed analysts’ earnings estimates for the fourth quarter and full year of 2009. Moody’s issued guidance for 2010 of single-digit percentage increases in both revenue and earnings.

Moody’s reported net income of $101.9 million for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2009, down from $88.7 million in the same quarter the previous year. Diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were 43 cents, up from 37 cents in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The ratings agency reported revenue of $485.8 million for the fourth quarter, up from $403.7 million in the same quarter the previous year.

“We anticipate continuing recovery for 2010, but also expect market conditions to remain challenging until economic improvement across key markets is sustained,” said Chairman and CEO Raymond McDaniel in the company’s earnings release. “We are projecting a stronger revenue increase and a return to earnings growth for 2010, with ongoing expense management to support business initiatives and regulatory and compliance efforts.”

Edward J. Atorino, analyst with The Benchmark Co. LLC, said in a research note Friday, “While 2008 and 2009 were tough markets for bond issuance, we believe the worst of Moody’s fundamental decline has passed.”

Moody’s provided guidance for full-year 2010 earnings ranging from $1.75-$1.85 per diluted share. Zack’s consensus earnings estimate for 2010 is $1.86 per diluted share.

The rating agency had net income of $402 million for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2009, down 12.2 percent from $457.6 million in 2008. Earnings for the full year 2009 were $1.69 per diluted share, down from $1.87 per diluted share in the previous year. Zacks’ estimate was $1.66 per diluted share.

Despite rising demand for debt grades amid thawing credit market, Moody’s forecast its expenses and revenue will both increase “in the high-single-digit percent range” this year.

The global ratings agency is facing increased regulations as its less-than-perfect ratings have help fuel the recent financial crisis. When asked when the senate is expected to move on the overall financial package, the Chairman and CEO Raymond McDaniel answered, “I would expect if anything is going to happen, it’s going to happen in the second quarter. After that, with the election year, I think it will be decreasingly likely that an action will take place in 2010.”

But amid a slew of items on the discussion table including healthcare, experts doubt that financial regulation is high on the senate’s agenda.

On Thursday, Moody’s stocks skidded $1.71 or more than 6 percent to $26.39.

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Exxon Mobile joins Turkish Black Sea exploration accord

Exxon Mobile Corporation announced Tuesday it signed a deal with Brasil's Petrobras to partake in the consortium with Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO)in a quest to find oil in the Black Sea.Exxon said that under the deal it purchased 25 percent share of rights over a 3 million hectare area in Sinop, Ayancik and Carsamba shores, with Petrobras holding 25 percent and TPAO 50 percent shares in the consortium.

However, the deal needs to be ratified by the Turkish government to take effect.

In April 2009, Turkey's TPAO and Brazil's Petrobras signed an agreement for the exploration of oil in the Black Sea.

Recently the massive deep-water oil platform "Leiv Eiriksson", which set off from Norway months ago, passed through the straits and reached Sinop, to explore oil at a depth of 6,000 meters with a daily cost of up to 1 million U.S. dollars.

The platform will stay in the Black Sea for five years, according to the semi-official Anatolia news agency.Turkish officials are very hopeful about drilling operations in the Black Sea which is believed to have huge underwater oil and natural gas reserves.

Recent seismic researches estimate a 10-billion barrel oil reserve in the Black Sea.

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Morgan Stanley sued over failed $1.2 billion CDO

Morgan Stanley (MS.N) has been sued by a Virgin Islands pension fund that accused the Wall
Street bank of defrauding investors by marketing $1.2 billion of risky mortgage-related notes that it expected to fail.

The lawsuit filed Dec. 24 in Manhattan federal court said Morgan Stanley collaborated with credit rating agencies Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's to obtain "triple-A" ratings for notes marketed in 2007 as part of a collateralized debt obligation (CDO) known as Libertas.

According to the complaint, the CDO was backed by low-quality assets, including securities issued by subprime lenders New Century Financial Corp, which quickly went bankrupt, and Option One Mortgage Corp, then owned by H&R Block Inc (HRB.N).

The complaint alleged Morgan Stanley knew the CDO's assets were far riskier than the ratings suggested, but was "highly motivated to defraud investors" with pristine ratings because it was simultaneously "shorting" almost all the assets. This was a bet that their value would fall, which they did in 2008.

"Morgan Stanley was betting the entire investment it was promoting would fail," according to the complaint, which was made available on Tuesday. "The firm achieved its objective."

Alyson Barnes, a Morgan Stanley spokeswoman, declined to comment. S&P spokesman Frank Briamonte had no immediate comment. Moody's did not immediately return a call seeking comment. Moody's, a unit of Moody's Corp (MCO.N), and S&P, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos (MHP.N), were not named as defendants.

Many banks face lawsuits from investors who say they were misled into investing in securities they believed were safe but which were in fact tied to risky subprime mortgages.

Morgan Stanley is also a defendant in a closely watched case in the same Manhattan court that concerns whether rating agencies deserve free speech protection for their opinions.

The Dec. 24 complaint said Morgan Stanley knew securities in the Libertas CDO were suffering a dramatic rise in delinquencies, but provided a misleading "risk factor" in a prospectus that rising delinquencies "may" hurt values in the $1 trillion residential mortgage-backed securities market.

It called this representation "analogous to Captain Smith's telling passengers of the Titanic that some ships have 'recently sunk' in the Atlantic and therefore 'our ship may sink,' without mentioning the facts that his ship struck an iceberg, had a hole in it, and was filling with water."

The lawsuit seeks class-action status, and also seeks compensatory and punitive damages, among other remedies. It was filed by Coughlin Stoia Geller Rudman & Robbins LLP, a law firm specializing in securities class-action lawsuits.

NRG Energy To Provide Energy Services To New University Medical Center Of Princeton

NRG Energy, Inc., ( its subsidiary NRG Thermal signed a contract to provide comprehensive, high-efficiency energy services to the new University Medical Center of Princeton at Plainsboro, which is expected to open by the end of 2011.

Under the 13-year contract, NRG will provide services from its Combined Heat and Power Plus program that integrates conventional, proven energy sources and leverages them with leading efficiency and environmental technologies.

American Express Adds British Airways as ‘Points Partner’

For the first time, U.S. American Express card members can transfer their membership rewards points into British Airways’ frequent flyer program for travel on BA and Oneworld partner airlines, AmEx has announced.

“With this added choice and flexibility, it is even easier for card members to redeem points for travel to the 150 destinations around the world serviced by British Airways – one of the leading global airlines,” American Express said in a statement.

British Airways, through its Executive Club Frequent Flyer program, is the 17th airline to join the growing roster of AmEx points transfer partners, which currently includes Delta, JetBlue and Continental.

The credit card giant has been boosting and heavily promoting its “points transfer” program, which gives card members the ability to transfer points directly into airline and/or hotel frequent flier/guest programs.

All major credit card issuers have been pumping up rewards programs and features in recent months ahead of reform laws set for full effect Feb. 22 that restricts when and how to raise interest rates or impose fees. Optional rewards credit card programs are not directly affected by language in the new legislation, although the Federal Reserve has yet to finalize rules for all fee provisions.

American Express card members can visit http://www.membershiprewards.com/ to redeem points for travel or transfer points.

Coca-Cola 'Freestyles' A Smarter Soda Machine

The Coca-Cola Company has launched a Twitter and Facebook page to bring awareness to a new soft drink dispenser that relies on radio frequency identification (RFID) technology. It has begun to test in the southern California market at a variety of restaurants, such as Carl's Jr., El Pollo Loco, Jack in the Box, and Subway. The smart-machine collects extremely detailed information about drink choices (the dispenser can mix up to 100 different soft drinks) and continually relays it to the company -- the Terminator of vending machines.

The Facebook fan page has more than 1,000 members since the launch at the end of July. Social media will drive traffic to participating outlets.

Coca-Cola Freestyle, the brand name for the fountain dispenser, dispenses more than 100 beverage brands from one unit. While it took more than four years to plan, the platform's design taps RFID technology from Seattle, Wash.-based Impinj.

Monza tag chips and Indy reader chips provide the core RFID capability for the system. It uses RFID to monitor, track and maintain dispenser operations as well as to provide real-time business analytics about product consumption and preferences.

There are 15 dispensers on the market. The network will include 75 by the end of September. Each unit will connect to the Internet and talk back and forth to the main system.

Coke Smart, will let customers who use the machine in their store order from an e-commerce site on the Internet. Coca-Cola also can download new recipes direct to the machine.

Freestyle will let Coca-Cola test new drink flavors, such as adding various vitamin combinations to flavored waters and juices. The dispensers contain 30 flavor cartridges tagged with RFID that mix up 100 different drink combinations. Each dispenser unit contains an RFID reader. The dispensers collect data on customer choice. The systems will collect data on sales, which in turn will give marketers information on where to best market specific products.

Was Warren Buffett buying stocks during the second quarter?

Later this week we'll find out whether Warren Buffett was buying stocks for Berkshire Hathaway during the second quarter as U.S. markets rallied.

Berkshire is likely to file its quarterly Form 13F with the SEC late this week, probably after the market closes Friday afternoon. The form, which is required of many institutional investors, will reveal Berkshire's stock holdings as of June 30. Berkshire's last 13F showed the firm's stock holdings as of March 31.

We already know from Berkshire's second-quarter earnings release Friday that the company sold part of its position in ConocoPhillips during the second quarter and continued selling in July. Berkshire also sold some of its stake in Moody's Corp. during the third quarter.

An analysis of the Form 10-Q filed Friday also indicates that Berkshire bought additional shares of Johnson & Johnson and Wells Fargo during the second quarter, as this report also notes.

We'll have the results of Berkshire's Form 13F filing shortly after it's made public this week.

Why He’s Warren Buffett — and You’re Not

Warren Buffett has already told the world what he’s doing in this frightful market. The Oracle of Omaha proudly proclaimed that he’s “been buying American stocks” with his personal funds.

But it should also be noted that Buffett has been putting his investors’ money on the line as well. After sitting on piles of cash for several years and lamenting the lack of attractive opportunities, Buffett has made several key acquisitions through his investment conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, culminating in a flurry of late- September and early-October deals.

In just a two-week span, Buffett picked up Constellation Energy for the relative bargain price of $4.7 billion. He bought $5 billion in preferred stock from Goldman Sachs, receiving a fat 10% yield. And he purchased $3 billion in preferred shares of GE, also yielding 10%.

This doesn’t mean Buffett is saying go out and buy Goldman or GE (GE) stock. In fact, there are plenty of reasons why you shouldn’t try to follow his lead, not the least of which is the fact that Berkshire gets deals that individuals simply can’t.

But that’s not the point. The opportunity here is to pick up some valuable investing wisdom from the greatest practitioner alive. In this spirit, here’s what I think you can learn from Buffett’s moves:

Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful

It’s the most famous of all Buffett-isms: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Today there’s ample evidence that people are scared, as fund investors have been redeeming record amounts of money from their stock portfolios.

By contrast, Buffett is putting his money to work. Berkshire’s cash balance, by my estimate, is at its lowest level in recent memory.

Now, this doesn’t mean the market will turn around tomorrow. But Buffett’s point is that this is not the time to flee U.S. stocks. In fact, now is a great time to be looking for shares of high-quality firms that have been beaten down to affordable levels.

For examples of attractively priced industry leaders, see the suggestions to the right.

Don’t Be Hobbled by Past Mistakes

Buffett’s investment in Goldman Sachs (GS) was surprising to many, given his frequent digs at Wall Street’s casino culture and a problematic investment he made in Salomon Brothers.

In 1987, Buffett bought a stake in Salomon to ward off a hostile takeover, but the firm nearly collapsed amid a bond bid-rigging scandal a few years later, and Buffett had to step in as interim chairman.

Although the investment eventually worked out - Salomon was bought by Travelers, which merged with Citicorp to form Citigroup (C) - it’s safe to say that it was a longer and harder road than he had anticipated.

Still, Buffett understood that investment banking, for all its recent woes, is an attractive business if managed properly. The group of top-tier firms is fairly small, and it would be hard for a new competitor to break into the business, which gives Goldman Sachs tremendous bargaining power over its customers.

There’s an important lesson in this for individual investors. Just because many financial stocks in your portfolio have imploded recently, it doesn’t mean you should sell out of this sector entirely - or turn your back on these stocks for good.

Don’t Fall in Love With Your Stocks

Buffett is famous for having said that his favorite holding period is “forever.” But he will sell a stock he loves if conditions warrant. For example, late last year, as crude-oil prices were approaching $100 a barrel, Buffett jettisoned his stake in PetroChina (PTR).

Why? After multiplying more than fivefold since he bought it a few years earlier, PetroChina shares had reached fair value, so he sold. Since he cashed out, PetroChina shares have been cut in half.

Chalk this up to a lesson the Oracle learned in the late ’90s. As he admitted in 2003, “…I made a big mistake in not selling several of our larger holdings during the Great Bubble.”

Buffett similarly made what may be one of his best decisions when he sold Berkshire Hathaway’s long-held stake in Freddie Mac (FRE) in 2000. He’s never written about exactly why, but he noted presciently at his 2001 annual shareholder meeting that Freddie Mac’s “risk profile had changed.”

Keep Your Powder Dry

While the rest of the world gorged on cheap credit, Buffett maintained Berkshire’s conservative profile. This hindered his returns when times were good, but having lots of cash on hand enabled Buffett to snap up once-in-a-lifetime deals, like Constellation Energy (CEG).

Buffett, who owns several utilities, jumped on Constellation in September after its shares tumbled from around $60 to his purchase price of $26.50 in a mere matter of days. The result: He nabbed a company that produces nearly $1 billion in earnings a year for less than $5 billion.

Now, you may not be in a position to keep $40 billion in the bank. But as Buffett showed, it’s smart to have some cash on hand for opportunistic purchases. What’s more, there’s nothing wrong with being disciplined enough to turn your back on stocks that you’re not 100% confident in. That’s sage advice.

Why He’s Warren Buffett — and You’re Not

If investing were as simple as mimicking Warren Buffett, then all you’d have to do to retire rich would be to download a free copy of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder letter and shadow the Oracle’s moves.

Given that you’re reading this article instead of relaxing at your seaside villa, it’s clear copying Buffett is no easy task. So as you marvel at the Sage, keep the following in mind:

Warren Can Strike Deals You Can’t

Buffett’s reputation and Berkshire’s financial heft are enormous advantages that regular investors simply don’t share. Take his recent investment in Goldman Sachs (GS). It was made in preferred stock that was offered only to Berkshire and pays a 10% fixed yield.

That’s twice what Uncle Sam is initially earning on the preferred shares it got from Goldman in exchange for injecting capital into the bank. But chalk that up to the Buffett premium. Firms want the Oracle to invest in them for his seal of approval.

Berkshire’s purchase of Constellation Energy offers a great example. Constellation’s shares had fallen 75% from their highs because the market was worried about the financial health of the company’s energy-trading operations.

If you or I bought the stock at that level, we would have been making a bet that Constellation would pull through. But we would not have been able to affect the odds. However, Berkshire’s financial strength and Buffett’s name assured Constellation’s survival, making the investment more valuable as soon as Warren bought the company.

Warren Is Smarter Than You Are

Many casual observers assume that Buffett simply buys great companies and hangs on to them. Simple, right? But the real key to Buffett’s success is far more complicated.

Buffett has created enormous value for Berkshire by buying all kinds of securities, from common stock and preferred shares to currencies, distressed debt and options.

He has also made money through merger arbitrage and fixed-income arbitrage. These are all areas that only the most sophisticated investor should dabble in.

Why Mimic Warren When You Can Hire Him?

Your best bet for benefiting from Buffett’s wisdom is the most obvious: Buy Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) stock.
It’s really an investment company. But unlike a fund, it doesn’t charge annual management fees. Buffett has deployed a lot of cash into attractive deals lately, which should add value for years to come.

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